European powerhouses storm into semi finals....as expected, whilst England flopped badly, also as expected!

Spain, Portugal, Germany & Italy have reached the semi finals of Euro 2012....as expected.
The only surprise flop & potential other team would have been Holland...and there were no surprises in one of the worst every England teams of all time being a major flop vs Italy in the quarter finals!

As predicted at the time the draw was made, Group A was too light to have any potential semi finalists. On the other hand Group B was deemed the "Group of Death" & 2 teams, Portugal & Germany from this group have rightfully earned their place in the semi finals. Spain were expected to be there & Italy have surprised everyone with their skilful approach & are now the dark horse of the tournament.

Andrea Pirlo, like old wine has had a renaissance year. Having led Juventus undefeated to Serie A title in Italy in a year many predicted his demise into eventual retirement, masterfully is leading Italy's charge towards the Euro 2012 title. Italy may have only won on penalties vs England, but the close result was by no means indicative of the huge gap between the teams.

By the way, if you have not seen Pirlo's silky smooth penalty vs England, watch it on youTube here. It's one of the most skilful penalties of all time, under the intense pressure of a penalty shoot out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcGU_gUH1F0

France on the other hand were never expected to go beyond the quarter finals & like Holland seem to continue to struggle with internal strife due to uncontrolled egos.

And as for those perennial underachievers England, well, potentially had their worst ever team in a tournament in living memory & played one of their worst ever matches vs Italy with unbelievably negative statistics heavily against them in terms of possession, shots on target & completed passes etc.

Hastily appointed coach Roy Hodgson had obviously read too much into the lucky ways of the negative defensive & boring CHELSEA, who totally undeservedly & through shear luck had got past the silky ways of Messi & Barcelona on the way to beating an unlucky Bayern Munich side in the final of the Champions League weeks earlier.

If Chelsea's win was a win for "anti football & money", England's elimination was a positive gain for football. England were once again lamenting their bad luck in penalty shootouts. From memory they have got eliminated on penalties in six major tournaments in 1990, 1996, 1998, 2004, 2006 & now in 2012 (don'y quote me on exact years as I may be wrong).

But the question the English press never asks is this: "Why England are incapable of winning matches in normal time in tournaments? Most other teams have been involved in one or two or at most three shoot outs during the last 22 years, England have had in six!!. 


In my view the reason for this is because the English teams are not tournament teams!" In fact I would go as far as saying the Rugby codes culture of friendly "test matches" style is engraved in the England football team as well! Win a match here lose one next playing the same teams over & over & over again as it boringly happens in rugby codes is alien to the world of tournament heavy football where there are 206 national team members & teams like Italy, Germany & Brazil thrive in.

Now to the semi final pairings:

Both matches are simply too close to call and it is even more difficult to predict the scores.

Spain are the more likely winner out of the battle with Portugal.

The problem with Portugal is that they rely too much on Ronaldo as a match winner, and if Ronaldo misfires as he did in the first match vs Germany Spain have enough to pounce & win the match. Spain know the Real Madrid  trio of Ronaldo, Pepe & Coentrao (as the trio do the Spanish players) & how they operate.
Overall, Xabi Alonso, Xavi, Iniesta & co are good enough to neutralise Ronaldo & win the match, and we all know the only & only criticism of this highly tactically & technically gifted Spanish team is their overwhelming tendency to win crucial matches 1-0 (as they did in their way to winning the World Cup in 2010). The trick is to stop Ronaldo, and if any team can do that, it's a Spanish side full of players who are used to playing with or against Ronaldo.

On the other hand, amazingly Germany have never managed to eliminate Italy in knockout stages of World Cup or European Championships! Their last such encounter was the WC 2006 semi final in Germany. Italy won 2-0 after extra time, as the match was about to head for penalty shootouts.

The two power houses' encounters have however always been close & tactically fascinating. This time, if this young & exciting German side are to break the jinx, they must mark the amazing Pirlo out of the game. In order to do so, Schweinsteiger must be at his best in the middle of the park. Against Greece, he was clumsy & obviously less than 100% fit. Nevertheless, this time around Germany have the depth in their bench not only to beat Italy, but also to go all out and avenge their Euro 2006 & World Cup 2010 losses to Spain.

As an astute witty friend of mine cheekily said the other day (thanks Tim, with your kind permission):
"It is Germany's duty to continue to cut a swathe through the debt ridden countries of Europe.  Having done away with the wasteful greeks, they can now see off the diving Italianos this week and then the best of the Iberian peninsula". 
(no offence to the suffering masses in those countries whilst the mining boom in Australia enriches the few lucky ones!)


My tip for the final: Spain 1 Germany 2

Euro 2012 firing up as quarter finals get under way & promise potential mouth watering semi final clashes

The best news out of the group round of Euro 2012 was an unusual statistic for football. For the first time in living memory, there were no 0-0 draws in the entire group phase matches!

OK! now that I got rid of the football sceptics reading my blog, let's talk about the flops, dark horses & favourites: :)

Flop of the tournament:

Major: Holland: How long will the Dutch blame clash of egos & lack of team spirit for their frequent tournament failures? They were arrogant, tactically naive, out of form & as usual  divided. There are major question marks over this team & even during their qualifying campaign they produced several questionable narrow wins.

Minor: Poland: For the first time since finishing third, Poland had a talented crop of young players starring in teams such as Dortmund & Arsenal. Whilst they were never favourites to go all the way, many, including me expected them to reach the quarter finals. I believe they paid for their lack of competitive matches (due to hosting rights). However, they will probably qualify for the 2014 World Cup.

Overachievers: Czech Republic & Greece. In Group A, considered the only weak group in the tournament, Russia & Poland were overwhelming favourites to go through. Czech Republic, whilst a force in Euro competitions with a great history, are in transition & started the tournament with a moral sapping 4-1 defeat to Russia. But they ended up topping the group. On the other hand, the Greeks with all their economic problems had to beat Russia in their final match in order to go through & they did.

England have also quietly overachieved. having only installed their coach just before the tournament, and with injuries to Lampard & Cahill & Rooney's suspension for the first two games, one would have expected them to flop yet again. But for once, with no pressure on their shoulders, they have performed well.

The favourites however, are still the defending Champions Spain.

Spain vs France: Spain will have a difficult encounter with France in the quarter finals. France can & probably will cause Spain some grief but not if they repeat their inept display vs Sweden, who by the way in my view were unlucky in all three games overall.

Spain & Germany have a competitive advantage vs the other teams, and that is the depth & quality of their bench. France on the other hand, have just lost their first match in 20 outings & are again displaying the signs of the old powerful team we got to know & admire.

As Chelsea (and Croatia) have proved in recent times, there are nevertheless tactics that can stifle the silky smooth passing games of teams such as Spain, Barcelona & Bayern. However, in doing so, you need opportunistic players of highest calibre who are capable of scoring from the odd chance or mistake they are presented with. Otherwise Spain will make you pay & eventually find a way to score, as they did in their narrow 1-0 final wins in both Euro 2008 & World Cup 2010 vs Germany & Holland respectively.

Portugal vs Czech Republic: A once again confident & free scoring Ronaldo will lead his resurgent Portugal side over the overachieving Czech side.

Semi Final tip: Spain vs Portugal

Germany vs Greece: Germany, the only team to go through to quarter finals on maximum points must improve if they are to beat the likes of Italy, England, France or Spain to win their first major tournament since Euro 1996.

They will have 7 or 8 Bayern players in their starting line up again. And Greece can make Germany suffer if the encounter turns out to be like Bayern vs Chelsea or Barcelona vs Chelsea, ie passing possession patient game of Germany vs all out defending & counter attacks of Greece. The Greeks have proven themselves to be hard to score against, & Germany (and Bayern for that mater) have at times found it difficult to break down the type of defensive walls which even Messi found hard to break down vs Chelsea.

Therefore, in order to beat Greece, Germany need a much faster attacking & less cautious approach than they have displayed so far. ie more of the first half vs Holland.

And on a minor political point, it's just been announced the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the most disliked European politician in Greece for her hard stance on financial bail out of Greece, will be attending to watch the match!

Italy vs England: I was confident before the tournament these two giants of world football were both destined to fail at Euro 2012. Both, in particular Italy have surprised many with their results & displays to the point that I now consider Italy the dark horse of the tournament.


On the other hand, I am yet to be impressed by England & can't see them getting past the likes of Italy, Germany or Spain. I think whilst Gerard has stabilised the midfield, England's defensive vulnerabilities have yet to be tested & whilst Rooney is back & has already scored, their forwards will find it extremely hard to break down the up to now impressive Italian defence, even though Italy currently have major injury worries.

Semi Final tip: Italy vs Germany

And the verdict for the final? It is too early to predict the semi final pairing as both luck & tactics will play a major role in the outcome of the quarter as well as semi finals.

And then there's the boggy team phenomenon! And in case of Germany, their boggy team is & will always be Italy! Just to name a few matches, Italy have always seem to outdo Germany where it counts! Just to name a few:

Italy famously beat Germany 4-3 in extra time in one of the greatest WC games of all time, in the 1970 WC semi final. They beat Germany convincingly in the 1982 WC final and most recently, Italy beat Germany in the WC 2006 semi final on the way to winning the World Cup!

Having shared with you that little piece of trivia, a Germany vs Spain, in my view will once again pair the two best & most exciting football nations in Europe against each other & in their respective top club sides representing the majority of the starting 11 in both sides, ie Barcelona & Real Madrid in Spain & Bayern Munich in Germany, they have the most attacking & free scoring club sides in Europe.

And surely after losing the Euro 2008 final & the WC 2010 semi final to Spain, both 1-0, Germany's time has arrived?

Germany vs Holland, a deep seated footballing rivalry & a much anticipated encounter at Euro 2012

In European footballing context, Germany vs Holland is as fierce & intense as sporting rivalries can get amongst geographical neighbours (as intense if not more than Australia vs New Zealand if you are not too familiar with football traditions)

Those of you who know me well, would be familiar with my childhood story of how I stumbled across & became a life long Bayern Munich & Germany fan. It all started with the intense & closely watched Germany vs Holland World Cup final in 1974.

Here's my story & how Holland & my Dad's broken promise made me a life long Germany & Bayern fan! I am posting this because Holland & Germany are about to lock horns on Thursday morning at Euro 2012:

At the time, before the start of the 1974 World Cup, as a 7 year old, I was hardly aware of the intense sporting rivalry between these two European neighbours & the fact that it had its roots not only in football but also in the generational issues following the disaster that was WW2.

Holland by 1974, led by Johan Cruyff were considered to be playing what was coined as "Total Football" & Ajax of Amsterdam had won the (then) European Cup, the premier club competition in the world (now Champions League) in 3 successive occasions in 1971-72 & 73.

This period was the first time football in Holland had moved out of the shadows of its fierce rival Germany & Holland were now the popular favourites to win the World Cup, which was being held in Germany in 1974. The football supporters in Holland, and indeed across Europe, were still the first post WW2 generation & as such resented Germany intensely.

As an impressionable child, I decided to support Germany purely due to a football related resentment towards my father & older brother! Despite having no intention to do so, my Dad had promised to take me to a World Cup qualifier match in 1973 & did not end up keeping his promise (as he had deemed I was too young to handle the crowded stadium).
By the time the World Cup started, my Dad & brother were like many others around the world, cheering Holland on. But I was still intensely resentful towards them for breaking a promise & decided to support (and hope) Germany would beat Holland in the final!

And to my amazement they did! Revenge was sweet! Germany won 2-1 & lifted the trophy in the home soil. The intense rivalry intensified immensely after the final & has never abated to this date (although politically the two countries are now very strong & friendly allies)

What I came to realise after the final as I started to explore football with all the curiosity of an excitable 7 year old, was that 6 of the starting 11 Germany players in the final played for a club side called Bayern Munich, from a city in Bavaria in South of Germany. And then that Bayern side went on to emulate the feats of their Dutch rivals Ajax by winning the European Cup in the next three years in 1974-75 & 76.

And the rest is history! I can proudly state that I have watched every single live telecast of Bayern & Germany matches shown in Australia since the early 80s (once SBS started to show live matches) & after years of suffering in isolation, am now one of the founding members of the thriving & officially sanctioned Bayern Munich Fan Club in Australia.

On Thursday morning, the latest episode in this intense footballing rivalry will unfold once again. It promises to be an exciting encounter because Holland lost their opening game to Denmark & therefore the match is a must win game for them. On the other hand, this German side, the youngest in average age in Germany's football history since after WW2, is an exciting attacking minded side which will most probably not play for a draw.

Both sides are star studded. Germany will again field 6-7 Bayern players in their starting line up, and may give their most exciting prospect, Dortmund's 19 year old wonder kid, Mario Goetze a starting birth on the flanks. On the other hand, Holland's free scoring striker Robin Van Persie fired bank against Denmark & it remains to be seen if he loses his starting line up to Huntelaar, the Bundesliga's top scorer this season, who is obviously familiar with the Germans.

My prediction: Germany 2 Holland 1

Why not, a repeat of the 1974 World Cup with 6-7 Bayern players in the line up would suit me fine!

The opening day of Euro 2012 full of drama, excitement & goals...and thankfully no racism!

As expected, Poland put up a great show to open Euro 2012, both in the Opening Ceremony & the opening match of the tournament against Greece.

For the information of the more casual football fans, after the Football World Cup & the Olympics, European Championships reportedly attract the third highest overall sports viewing audience around the world. (although the Indian Cricket League IPL is also very popular these days)

Group A, dubbed the real Group of Death, not for its tough competition but for lack of excitement compared, produced two drama filled matches in the opening day:

Poland controlled Greece in the first half & a Greek defender was harshly sent off. Then in the second half, Greece demonstrated their resilience & if it was not for a penalty miss they could have won the game.
In the other match, as expected Russia crushed a young & transitional Czech Republic side 4-1. The scoreline could have been much worse if not for Russia's wastefulness.

The two matches only confirm my belief further that Russia & Poland are favourites to go through to the quarter finals from Group A

And most importantly there were no sign of the ugly "Football Racism" around. Let's hope that trend continues.

Tomorrow morning the opening matches in arguably the toughest Group in the tournament will be played. Three of the four teams in the group are former winners & Portugal were finalists in 2004.

The problem with this group is that each team needs to get a draw or a win from every match as there are no so called easy matches in this group.

Holland in my view are favourites to top the group & should win their opening match against Denmark reasonably comfortably. With impressive goal scorers such as Huntelaar, Van Persie, Robben & Snjeider at their disposal, Holland are a better team than they were in the World Cup in 2010 when they narrowly lost to Spain.

Germany on the other hand have surprisingly misfired in the last few weeks having conceded 5 goals to Switzerland albeit fielding a much weakened side. Then there is also the daily question in the media & press conferences about whether their 8 Bayern stars have psychologically recovered from their heartbreaking loss to Chelsea in the Champions League final.(all of whom could potentially start against Portugal)

Having said that, I have followed Germany through every single World Cup & European Championship since 1974. They are the tournament team! Die Mannschaft get better & do not hit form too early (Italy are another great example of this, whilst some of the best Brazilian teams of all time were the opposite)

I believe whilst Germany continue to have difficulty with their two central defence positions, they now, for the first time since 1996 possess enough quality players to be considered potential winners. They also have for the first time since they won the 1990 World Cup have enough talent on the bench to change tactics & salvage matches if they fall behind & in players such as Neuer, Lahm, Ozil, Kroos, Schweinsteiger, Goetze, Klose, Podolski & co Germany are once again belong to the cream of world football but need to crown the potential by winning the tournament. (they have reached the semi finals of the last two world Cups & were the finalist in Euro 2008 losing to Spain)

Portugal on the other hand will have to rely too heavily on Ronaldo especially if as reported Nani does not start against Germany. Ronaldo, like Messi is yet to reproduce his club form on the world stage. Their achilles tendon which Germany will target will be Fabio Coentrao who had an awful time playing against Bayern this year for his Club side Real Madrid.

On Monday, the defending Champions & favourites Spain will open their account vs Ireland in a tough Group C contest. I believe Chelsea's tactics vs Barcelona & Bayern Munchen in the Champions League have exposed Spain's weaknesses. With Torres's form still in question & David Villa's long term injury, Spain's attack may be too blunt to deal with a defensive Irish approach. And absence of the ever reliable Carlos Puyol adds to Spain's defensive worries.
Nevertheless, Spain should ultimately account for the Irish & also top the group.

I rate this Italian side as lowly as many including myself rated the woeful French side in the World Cup 2010. To top it all, Italian football is once again (surprise surprise) in the midst of yet another match fixing scandal. Croatia on the other hand, are & have always been a football production line! Whilst they are also going through a mini transitional period, their coach in my view is still one of the most tactically gifted coaches in Europe. Despite the huge loss of Olic to injury last week, I predict Crotia will beat Italy & will go through to the QF alongside Spain.

On Tuesday, the ever disappointing England open their account in Group D. France have now remained unbeaten in 18 matches under the likable former Captain Blanc & should be considered one of the dark horses of the tournament.

This is perhaps the hardest group to predict. I still believe Frank Lampard is the heart & soul of the England team. In his absence, and with Rooney being suspended for the first two group matches, alongside the foolish decision by Hodgson not to recall Rio Ferdinand after Gary Cahill was forced to pull out, England have problems in both defence & attack & the Swede attack led by an in form Zaltan Ibrahimovic can potentially signal the end of England's campaign after the first round.

I predict France & Sweden (or Ukraine with home support) to go through to the quarter finals.

I will be posting regular blogs during the tournament.

Spain are favourites to retain their crown at Euro 2012

Euro 2012 is only a week away. Considering the economic & political upheaval in Europe, this tournament & the London 2012 Olympics are necessary distractions for those millions of people affected by the financial crisis in Europe.

Most teams are fine tuning their tactics in friendlies at the moment in anticipation of the opening match On Saturday 9th June.

It is generally acknowledged that the European Championships are the most competitive & difficult football tournament in the World. In fact outside Brazil & Argentina, the tournament usually features the best footballing nations in the world. For example, six of the seven teams reaching the final four of the last two World Cups feature in Euro 2012 (the 7th being Uruguay with Germany featuring in both semi finals). sadly however, the next European Championships in France in 2016 will be extended to 24 teams. This is a purely commercial decision & will undoubtedly reduce the quality of the event as a whole.


In my view, and most other commentators & fans, Spain, the defending European & World Cup winners are again the clear favourites this year. With the exception of the absence of the injured David Villa & the influential Barcelona Captain Puyol, Spain have a near full strength team based on the stars of Barcelona & Real Madrid & supplemented by the talents from Atletico Madrid, Valencia & Athletic Bilbao. If Fernando Torres continues to improve his form as he has during May, Spain may very well will the title again. However, if Torres misfires as he has for most of the past two years, then, in the absence of the free scoring David Villa, Spain will struggle.

After Spain, the young, attacking & skillful Germany & the ever scoring Holland are the other favourites with the 19 game undefeated France as an outside chance. Two major issues for favourites Germany are:
a) Poor recent form of their only two out & out strikers Gomez & Klose
b) Whether the shattering psychological impact of Bayern's loss to Chelsea has a lasting effect in the minds of the 8 Bayern players in the squad, considering that as many as all 8 are potential starters in any of the three group stage matches.

I believe England, without the injured Lampard & the suspended Rooney (for the first two group matches) & their newly assigned coach will once again disappoint whilst Italy are still in transition & the latest corruption allegations will not help them. Both Italy & England will have problems scoring goals

And the likes of Portugal, Croatia, Russia will be the usual difficult opponents for the so called favourites whilst out of the two co-hosts Poland have more potential to reach the quarter or semi finals.

My predictions for the quarter finals, not in any particular order:

Group A: Russia & Poland
Group B: Germany & Holland
Group C: Spain & Croatia
Group D: France & Sweden (or Ukraine with home support)

Chelsea may be lucky to be Champions but their determination & discipline were unquestinable.

As a die hard FC Bayern Munchen fan, I travelled & watched the final at Allianz Arena in Munich. Witnessing the defeat in person has made it more difficult to digest as Bayern were simply in control of the match all the way to the penalty shootouts when all of a sudden they missed their 4th & 5th penalties & lost!

I must of course congratulate Chelsea for the courageous way they defended their way & rode their luck to the full unbelievable extend of it in both the semi finals & the final. First they eliminated Barcelona, arguably the best team in the world, and then they beat Bayern in Munich. In all three games Chelsea defended with 11 players. However, they also took their chances whilst both Barcelona & Bayern were profligate & wasted numerous opportunities including the decisive penalty misses by Messi for Barcelona & Robben for Bayern.

By the time Chelsea equalised in the 88th minute of the final, the possession statistics were Bayern 65% Chelsea 35% & the corner counts were Bayern 20 Chelsea 0!!

And then Arjen Robben missed his penalty in the extra time & the rest is history. Bayern now have the unwanted record of having lost 5 European Cup/Champions League finals (equal with Juventus & Benfica) & they have lost 5 of their last final appearances in the competition.

Whether the current crop of players can manage to reach the final again is questionable considering the huge negative psychological impact of having lost the 2010 & 2012 finals.