No matter which way you look at it, Brazil are the overwhelming favourites to win the World Cup for a record sixth time.
They have the talented world class players, tactical quality & the added advantage of home soil in "South America" where no European team has ever succeeded.
As my regular World Cup posts kick in from this week, here I will make some personal observations (rather than tactical) about some of the favourites & dark horses & what can potentially make or break it for them:
Brazil can & will most probably win the World Cup. In the Confederation Cup final, they comfortably beat the defending World & European Champions, potentially their strongest opponent, 3-0.
However, the high expectations as well as home crowd pressures can play against them. The ghost of the defeat in the 1950 tournament in home soil & the widespread discontent with the costs associated with staging the games mean the slightest hick up can turn things against Brazil, both psychologically & in terms of home crowd support.
However, in my personal opinion, Brazil's biggest worry is in fact their coach Scolari. Unlike most fans, I am not a big fan of "Big Phil" & believe if Brazil get in trouble, he may not have the tactical ingenuity to save them.
Spain, the defending Champions, also have the players, the tactical ability and a brilliant coach in Del Bosue. The fact that they will not meet Brazil unless both teams reach the final is another advantage for them. The only thing against Spain is that their style of play is no longer an unknown factor (as demonstrated by their loss to Brazil, and Barcelona's decline in the last two European season). Also, there are lingering doubts in the quality of Spain's defence & who Del Bosque decides to use as central defenders & full backs.
However, a Brazil vs Spain Final is a the most probable outcome.
Germany are in one of the two very tough groups in the tournament & must be very careful not to get embarrassed at this World Cup by any of their more than capable opponents in the group stage.
They do have an enviable World Cup record to defend after all! They have reached the last 8 in every one of the last 15 World Cups, whilst making it to semi finals in 12 occasions & the final 7 times. However, the psychological barriers are disturbing! Germany lost their semi final matches to the eventual winners Italy & Spain in the last two World Cups in 2006 & 20010 respectively. They also lost out to Spain in the final of Euro 2008 & Italy in the semi final of Euro 2012.
The advantage for Germany is that the core of the players in those tournaments are at their prime in the current side & their experience may take Germany all the way.
Like Spain & Brazil, Germany have both the player quality & tactical capability to win the tournament. However, not only absence due to injuries of the likes of Gomez & Gundegan (and even Scheweinsteiger & Khedira's lack of fitness) will potentially play havoc to Germany's tactical plans, but also, Germany will probably meet Brazil in the semi finals where their suspect central defence and lack of a world class quality left full back can catch up with them & be their undoing. However, if they get through the current psychological barrier of being tagged as losing semifinalists, this time Germany win through to the final, I strongly believe they will win the Cup.
Argentina can only seriously challenge if they have learned from the lessons of World Cup 2010, where despite being entertaining, they relied too heavily on an underwhelming Messi & had major defensive shortcomings which were exploited in the 4-0 thrashing by Germany in the quarter finals. They are tactically better post manic Maradona period & will go a long way if Messi can reproduce his Barcelona magic. However, they cannot succeed if they try to use Messi for Plan B if things go wrong.
Italy, in my opinion, will go far in this year's tournament. Italy were thrashed in the Euro 2012 Final by Spain following their surprise 2-1 semi final win vs Germany in Euro 2012. Following that loss, they have been continuously overlooked by the media as a major contender. Since then however, Prandelli has done a magnificent job of refining the team tactically. They have massive World Cup winning (2006) experience in defence supporting the evergreen Buffon in goal, whilst another evergreen master, Pirlo, is still at the top of his game & can dictate & turn most sticky situations t Italy's favour.This year however, Italy also have a very potent attacking line up in the unpredictable Balotelli but also the likes of hugely dangerous & talented Immobile, Cerci & Insigne. This is why they must be considered one of the favourites.
England & Holland on the other hand, in my opinions will potentially fail to get past the group stage.
Holland are a very inexperienced albeit talented side which as entertaining as they may be, simply do not have the player experience at this level & are in danger of losing their spot to an impressive & dangerous Chile who will undoubtedly cause a headache or two for Spain as well. Whilst Van Gaal is a master of getting the best out of young talent, the experienced players in his squad who are on top of their game are only a handful. With the news this week of Van der Vaart injury blow Holland's prospects have got even worse. Even if Holland make it out of the group stage, they will most probably face Brazil, and unlike 2010 when they beat Brazil, this Holland team is not experienced enough to cause a huge upset this time around against the tournament favourites.
England have also finally started to produce some real quality young talent again. The likes of Shaw, Barcley, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Wilshere, Sturridge have the potential to shine at the world stage this year & make an impact.
However, England are in a very tough group (group of death) & must overcome Italy & Uruguay to go further. The British media's unhealthy obsession with their domestic league (EPL) as usual does not help either as it makes the English myopic. At the same time, whilst Roy Hodgeson is an excellent manager & much more suited to the job than Capello ever was, his capacity to guide a team to the world summit must be questioned.
I don't believe England can finish first in their group. However, if they manage to finish second, they will meet a hugely talented Colombia side which will probably beat them in the next round.
France meanwhile, will get through their easy group as well as round of 16th before coming unstuck at the quarter finals when their tournament will end. All that the French public are hoping for is a united team of talented players to make up for the farcical embarrassment of World Cup 2010 group stage elimination.
As for the teams with lower profiles, Colombia, Uruguay & Chile are all capable of causing huge upsets this year. Not only all three teams are tactically superb, their players will find playing in South America easier than most of their European counterparts.
Chile have only built on Bielsa's great work & their unlucky elimination in the last World Cup & if anything are even more entertaining & dangerous this year. I predict they will go through at the expense of Holland this year....and then in the elimination rounds anything is possible.
Uruguay are not doubt sweating on the fitness of their star player Luis Suarez. They have the quality to pip both Italy & England to the post in the Group of Death & have the memories of their famous World Cup triumph of 1950 in Brazil to carry them psychologically.
Columbia, like Uruguay, are also praying to have their undisputed start Falcao fit just in time for the games (although after a lengthy absence due to injury). However, there are several other talented players in the side that can carry them in Falcao's absence. Whilst it appears they may have an easy group on paper, they are in fact in a tough group as matches vs Ivory Coast & Japan will be anything but easy. However, it is in the round of 16 that Columbia's world cup plans may unravel, when they will meet one of the trio of England/Italy/Uruguay from Group D
Amongst the remaining European teams, Belgium offer the best of the rest. They have a young talented side with several stars playing across Europe's top leagues & in Champions League. They are also in a reasonably easy group on paper. However, in the round of 16, they will potentially meet Germany & Portugal. This is where their palyers' lack of World Cup experience can potentially work against them. nevertheless, this Belgium side will be a force for the next few years.
And how about the so called minnows of the game?
There is no doubt that Australia's Socceroos have been incredibly unlucky in drawing the 2010 World Cup finalists Spain & Holland, as well as one of the dark horses of the tournament Chile. Hopefully, the Socceroos will use Brazil to prepare for Asian Championships which are held in Australia in January 2015.
As for the rest, Japan & Ivory Coast have many talented players but are unfortunately drawn in the same group! Boznia-Hertegovina on the other hand, can potentially overcome Nigeria & Iran & make it to the knockout stage in their first ever World Cup as an independent state.
The most watched event in the history begins on June 13th. All matches are live & exclusive to SBS. No doubt we will witness the full spectrum of sporting drama, good, great, not so good & ugly.......from heartache to bad luck, to time wasting, poor refereeing decisions to player cheating. No matter what THE WORLD GAME will once again entertain, enrage & thrill the fans all over the world!
To paraphrase the words of the legendary Liverpool Manager Bill Shankly: ..."...to the fans......football is not about life & death! It's much more important than that!"
Bring it on!
