Will the Super rich clubs of Europe start to feel the pressure from China?

A glance at my prediction from the group stage: I got all right, only that end position of Leicester & Bayern were the other way around…….

This is because smaller clubs continue to find the gap with the rich clubs (European giants plus most of EPL Clubs enjoying mega broadcast handouts)

Group A: PSG & Arsenal…..PSG have gone strangely cold but will top the group

Group B: Napoli & Benfica

Group C: Barcelona & Man City 

Group D: Bayern & Atletico

Group E: Monaco & Leverkusen (This is one of the only unpredictable groups as Spurs will be a force too)

Group F: Dortmund & Real Madrid…in that order! I believe Dortmund will top this group

Group G: Porto & Leicester This is a remarkably weak group due to Leicester being seeded but that can make it unpredictable & exciting

Group H: Juventus & Sevilla

And as for who will reach the quarter finals:

Bayern will beat Arsenal, albeit in a much tighter encounter than the easy 5-1 hammering last year

Real should get the better of the unpredictably inconsistent Napoli, although on their day, Napoli are more than capable of beating Real

Dortmund will be too fast for Benfica, although consistency has been a major problem for both sides this season

I tip Monaco to embarrass an out of sorts Manchester City

Barcelona, Atletico & Sevilla will have relatively easy routes to quarter finals. It is surprising how badly the departure of Ibrahimovic & Blanc affected PSG.

As for the Chinese mega money threatening the financial muscle of europe's super rich, I am not too worried. At thee end of the day fans are attracted to European giants for their tradition, name AND superstar players & not just players.

For example, an unknown Chinese team with two-three highly paid former European stars has no hope against the likes of Manchester United.

Champions League more than ever before the playground of the super rich

This year's group stage draw for the 2016-17 Champions League was dealt with little enthusiasm. Even I am writing this blog following Match Day 1.

The draw suggests a predictable pattern of most elite clubs plus 1-2 surprise packs making the round of 16. To that extent, Champions League is now flirting with losing its appeal as and becoming a total domain of the super rich.

As far as the predictions for who will top the groups:

Group A: PSG & Arsenal…..PSG have gone strangely cold but will top the group

Group B: Napoli & Benfica

Group C: Barcelona & Man City 

Group D: Bayern & Atletico

Group E: Monaco & Leverkusen (This is one of the only unpredictable groups as Spurs will be a force too)

Group F: Dortmund & Real Madrid…in that order! I believe Dortmund will top this group

Group G: Porto & Leicester This is a remarkably weak group due to Leicester being seeded but that can make it unpredictable & exciting

Group H: Juventus & Sevilla

A you can see, the group stage with 1-2 exceptions (Groups E & G) is becoming predictable & boring. (I am getting tired of getting 15-16 predictions right season after season as a result!)

UEFA & the big clubs must address this issue. The news that the big 4 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga & Serie A) will all have a permanent guaranteed 4 teams as of 2018 is hardly going to help the predictability which is fast setting in.

Nevertheless, meanwhile, let's we can look forward to a few sumptuous battles in the next few months:

Barcelona vs Pep & Man City

Bayern vs Atletico revenge match up from last season

Dortmund & Real Madrid resuming their exciting rivalry

Unspectacular end to a dour uninspiring Euro 2016 as Portugal are crowned European Champions

In short: Thank God the dour uninspiring Euro 2016 is over!

Or as the BBC chief football writer aptly put it: "Portugal were the winners best suited to Euro 2016 - unspectacular, not easy on the eye, but got the job done"

The fact is, a 24 team tournament that "rewarded 4 out of the best 3rd placed teams" (which included Portugal with 3 draws) was bound to produce many "park the bus for a draw" results & it duly did! 

However, the dourness continued into most of the knockout stage matches & went all the day to the final, with very few matches in the entire tournament producing shear exciting moments.

The odd few that were great matches, e.g. Italy vs Germany & France vs Germany, were highly tactical matches more reserved for admiration of football purists than most fans.

On the positive side Iceland & Wales over achieved & produced reasonably attractive football, and many fans were vibrant & inspiring (e.g. Iceland, Irish, Welsh German & French, but not so were Russian & English fans)

It was also inspiring to see France & her people & visiting fans take on the beautiful streets of host cities & reclaim their beautiful country from the horrors of terrorism.

On the "as expected" side, a much media hyped England side once again arrived short of tactical maturity & exited in embarrassment in early stages. (somethings never change!)

And so, Ronaldo can now claim a major international trophy with Portugal to compliment the long list of his trophy cabinet in England & Spain…….and that is something that Ronaldo & his fans can brag about when they compare him to Lionel Messi, who for the third consecutive major final with Argentina failed to break the curse & win anything.

But the most critical issue from Euro 2016 must surely be the fact that many players simply looked tired after a long European season & the fact that thanks to the success of the likes of Leicester City & Atletico Madrid, the dour defensive counter attacking "anti football" tactics are back in full fashion amongst many coaches!

All we can do now is to hope the new European season can put uninspiring Euro 2016 behind it, players can be energised & coaches can bring exciting attacking football back to life once again!

England humuilated (again) as Italy end Spain's era of dominance at Euro 2016

ONLY the English media & those fans fooled by the hype of EPL were surprised by the result……most fans across Europe were simply bemused with slight contempt for a hapless England side.

To keep things in perspective however it must be noted that England have only featured in a single major final in their entire footballing history!….and that was at home in 1966 in the controversial final vs West Germany.

However, what is really hurting England now is the unnecessary marketing hype that is created every year by the media about the EPL! 

In tournament after tournament the same sad sorry story is played out: 

English media creates a huge hype based on "players from the best league in the world!" (nonsense!)………the team disappoints….the media explodes in shock & horror…….and then the next EPL season starts & all failures are forgotten on the collective selfpraising hype that is the EPL marketing machine……and the players fall for it again!

Whilst the EPL marketing machine generates unrivalled megamoney, it has several negative impacts on the game in England:

- Most obviously, young English talented players do not get a chance to break into regular first team football & their technical development is lacking in depth compared to many of their European counterparts
- This vicious cycle means EPL clubs resort to buying foreign players to fill the lack of depth in technical quality of English players
- Therefore, most critical positions in most EPL teams are filled by foreign players
- Relative success of players in EPL is hyped up by the media to the point that even the players are fooled about all the hype.

In fact, whilst most regular followers of major mainland European leagues, in particular Spanish  German, Italian leagues (& to a lesser extent French, Portuguese & Dutch leagues) admit EPL is more exciting to watch, they also clearly identify that European leagues are tactically & technically superior to the EPL.

Sad week for England, as the old Empire exited Europe twice in the space of a few days……..

Ironically, prior to Euro 2016 most English speaking commentators dismissed Italy as a slow sluggish side in transition devoid of playmakers & goalscorer……and that is exactly how England could be described vs Iceland!

Meanwhile Italy are now the clear favourites having eliminated Spain convincingly & in doing so ending Spain's era of dominance in the world of football……although Spain will be back as a force in World Cup 2018……..sadly the same cannot be said about the out of depth English side.

The quarter final pairing of Italy vs get many is worthy of a final and I predict the winner will go on to be crowned the European Champions.

The year of the triumphant return of the old fashioned 4 - 4 - 2

2016 is the year of the return of the classic 4-4-2 formation & its triumph over the more tactically complex formations such as 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1.

Leicester City & Atletico Madrid, under the leadership of their respective managers, the affable Claudio Ranieri & the fiery Diego Simeone have overcome their more fanciful & much richer rivals by playing old fashioned counter attacking football.

Leicester City's capture of EPL may be regarded as a once in a generation 5000-1 miracle.

Leicester's win is being compared to Brian Clough's 1979-1980 miraculous League & double European Cup win with Nottingham Forest. at the same time however, commentators fail to mention or remember that Clough's triumph possibly had a huge influence in Aston Villa's similar double by 1982. So, this may not be the end of an era of rebellion of classic football tactics vs the modern complex new age methods!

Ranieri & Leicester have achieved their magnificent success by designing & implementing the basic tactics of football very effectively:
- a solid confident goal keeper supported by solid central defenders & full backs who keep the game narrow & do not get pulled to the wings leaving their centre backs exposed.
- In front of the back four, a defensive midfield pairing with good ball distribution ability supported by two more half backs in front of them & then have two fast counter attacking forwards to score most of the goals!

Simeone & Atletico Madrid, can take the lion share of credit as pioneers of the return of 4-4-2. Atletico are of course a much more present day European powerhouse than Leicester City but they have missed out on winning the Spanish La Liga this year.

Nevertheless, although much more regularly criticised for "parking the bus" & playing a boring counter attacking style, Simeone & his team have outclassed the two main favourites for the European crown this year, Barcelona & Bayern & have reached their 2nd Champions League final in three years.This is despite the fact that they have averaged around 30% possession in almost all their crucial domestic & European matches this year!

So, the challenge for the likes of Pep Guardiolla & Luis Enrique is now how to use their possession fancy tiki taka to neutralise the defensive counter attacking minded 4-4-2 of Simeone, Ranieri & all those other coaches who are now closely watching & hoping to emulate them. 

It will not be an easy task! Just ask Barcelona, Bayern, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United…..and the list goes on & on this year as 4-4-2 basks in the glory of a come back!

….And then there were four…….

….But not the final four most of us had predicted!

Yes Real Madrid rallied to beat an " in awe" Wolfsburg who failed to get the crucial away goal rule…….

And yes, despite stuttering at home Bayern showed their class in Lisbon to neutralise the gallant Benfica

But Manchester City buoyed by the return of De Bruyne stunned PSG to reach their first ever European Cup/UCL semi final
………and after having scored & still lost in multiple encounters with Barcelona this season, including in the ill tempered first leg at Nou Camp, Atletico Madrid stunned Barcelona with a a mere 30% possession & eliminated the faltering defending Champions.

In my view, Atletico Madrid must now be considered the favourites! They have proven over & over again in recent years that Simone has made them one of the best & hardest to beat teams in Europe.

They may be combative, rough & at times ill disciplined, and yes it is at times justified to criticise them as hard to watch & accuse them of parking the bus & defend nonstop.

But it is the quality of Atletico's players and the huge unifying influence of Diego Simeone which makes them irresistible & now the favourites.

In Oblak, Atletico probably have the most underrated & yet most consistant goalkeeper in Europe. 

Their defence is marshalled by the incomparable Godin ably supported by the likes of Juan Fran & Filipe Luis

…….their holding midfield is as good as any Europe led by Gabi, and then upfront with the once again in form Griezmann (& Torres) supported by the likes of Koke, they can always be guaranteed to score goals.

I am nevertheless a hardcore life long Bayern fan & can't see Guardiolla losing in the semi finals of the Champions League to a third Spanish Club in 3 years.

Real Madrid on the other hand have many problems, and if they simply rely on Ronaldo & their home support, this once again flowing Manchester City side can & will surprise them the same way they dispersed of the favourites PSG. Nevertheless,

Real will have a huge advantage in appearing in their record equalling 6th consecutive semi final of UCL playing a team which is appearing in their first ever semi final (albeit led by the UCL winning Yaya Toure). This by itself will make Real favourites to go through to the final.

My Tip: Bayern vs Real Madrid….with Bayern to be crowned European Champions as Guardiolla departs.

RIP Johan Cruyff, arguably the most influential figure in the history of football

25 April 1947 – 24 March 2016

Johan Cruyff (1947 - 2016) influenced the beautiful game like no other person. His legacy stands above all other greats of the world of football.

He changed the game as an icon, as a player, as a master tactician, as a manager and continued to influence the game as a statesman. 

His style of play was similar to the great Messi, but in an era when defenders used to break players' legs & get away with it.

Unlike the likes of Platini & Beckonbauer, he refused to get involved in FIFA politics & risk tarnishing his name.

Unlike Messi & Ronaldo, the lack of a World Cup in his resume was accompanied by leading a team that mesmerised the fans & revolutionised the game in the 1974 World Cup 
(unlike e.g. Ronaldo & Portugal the losing finalists in 2004 Euros or Messi & Argentina the losing finalists in WC 2014, both of which were at best above average). 

He therefore may not have won the World Cup, but he won the world over.

As an icon, he was the first player to wear a tailor made double stripe Adidas shirt during WC 1974 (vs the famous Adidas triple stripes). 

He was the first player in the world to transfer for $2m (Ajax to Barcelona).
He was the first player who wore a no outside 1-11 (famous 14) in the World Cup.

He named his third child "Jordi" after the patron saint of Catalonia, This was seen as a provocative gesture towards the then Spanish dictator General Franco, who had made all symbols of Catalan nationalism illegal.

His famous quotes make him football's true philosopher: Here are some of his best known quotes:

On himself:

• "In a way I'm probably immortal"
• "If I wanted you to understand it all, I would have explained it better"
• "Actually I never make a mistake, because it takes a huge effort for me to make a mistake."
• "I don't believe in God. In Spain all 22 players cross themselves, if it works the game is always going to be a tie."

On football and his philosophy

• "Playing football is very simple, but playing simple football is the hardest thing there is."
• "Italians can't win the game against you, but you can lose the game against the Italians."
• "Quality without results is pointless. Results without quality is boring."
• "It's better to go down with your own vision than with someone else's."
• "In my teams, the goalie is the first attacker, and the striker the first defender."
• "There is only one ball, so you need to have it."

Champions League quarter Final Draw easier on paper!

This year's Champions League draw has drawn "European Royalty" vs rugged, persistent underdogs. As such, on paper predicting the semi finalist may seem straight forward.

I happen to predict all 8 quarter finalists correctly in my round of 16 post, including Benfica even though I was hoping to see the Dutch side PSV in the quarter finals.

Real Madrid have improved since Zidane replaced Benitez. However, undoubtedly their progress in the Champions League has very much been helped with good fortune in the draw.
Having qualified with a mere 5 points, Roma nevertheless gave Real a run in Madrid & Wolfsburg may & can do the same. However, Real will prevail & reach yet another semi final.

PSG will account for an out of sorts Manchester City even more comfortably than they beat Chelsea & will reach their first ever Champions League semi final. City have been out of sorts ever since it was announced Pep Guardiola will be their manager next season. They are only here because their round of 16 draw was easier than previous years.

Bayern, having survived the scare at Munich vs Juventus should be able to beat the brave Benfica.  Against Juventus, the absence of Boeteng, Badstuber & Martinez was exploited & that is what Benfica will be hoping to emulate. Nevertheless I still believe the only team capable of beating Bayern are Barcelona.

Barcelona can take comfort in the unstoppable MSN goalscoring trio & the fact that Atletico Madrid have found it difficult to beat Barcelona in La Liga in recent years. Nevertheless, Atletico are extremely difficult to score against, and in 2014 Champions League they eliminated Barcelona.

All in all, if any team is capable of causing an upset vs the unstoppable force that is barcelona, it is the gritty Simone men from Madrid. 

Can any team in Europe stop Barcelona's MSN aka the Good, the Bad & the Ugly?

 Barcelona's MSN are a force never seen in European or indeed world football before.

Messi, Suarez & Neymar, or MSN as they are better referred to, not only seem to have telephonic understanding of each other's movements, but they are also totally non selfish when going for goal & the ball is almost always invariably passed to the player in the most opportune goal scoring position. To make it even harder, the trio enjoy the support of the magnificent trio of Iniesta, Bouquets & Rakitic, to the point that the retirement of the incomparable Xavi seems to have had little impact on the team's cohesion.

No wonder other teams across Europe consider the trio the Good (Messi), the Bad (Neymar) and the Ugly (Suarez, and in this case the physical resemblance also applies!)

FIFA reform needs much more than a simple swap from Sepp Blatter to Gianni Infantino

FIFA has finally got a new President! And not a day too soon as the reign of the master manipulator/storyteller Sepp Blatter finally came to an end as he starts serving his 6 year ban. (Surprisingly, and not hard to believe no jail term or criminal indictment have been forthcoming by Swiss authorities!)

Gianni Infantino was today elected the new FIFA president. 

This followed 18 tumultuous months of jaw dropping revelations of chronic corruption, money laundering, cronyism, outright financial theft by FIFA Executives & vote buying scandals surrounding 2018 & 2022 World Cups in Russia & Qatar (with thanks to many investigative Journalists around the world such as Andrew Jennings)

A corrupt/money laundering scheme that was created by Joao Havelange at the dawn of media/sponsorship money in early 80s (with Sepp Blatter as his dutiful Secretory General of FIFA), was masterfully turned into a very sophisticated bribery/theft/money laundering scheme in exchange for votes under the watchful eyes & (so called) leadership of Sepp Blatter! 

5 star hotels/restaurants/1st class flights/expensive gifts/rubbing shoulders with world leaders & of course prostitutes were also thrown in for good measure in order to keep the chaps (aka FIFA Executives with voting power!) happy, engaged & loyal!

As it is usually the case, finally Blatter succumbed to his own arrogance, grandiose delusion, vanity & complacency by granting 2018 & 2022 World Cups both at once. 

Blatter was at best forced to do this in order to cover himself & his cronies rampant money laundering & theft from FIFA  (from indicted Chuck Blazer to disgraced & exposed Ricardo Teixeira & Jack Warner to name the most well known amongst many executive thieves at FIFA), and at worst was a full accomplice as greed simply got the better of him & his thieving colleagues.

Whilst Infantino has a clear history & does not carry a "heavy FIFA baggage" of his colleagues at FIFA, he still represents "the establishment" at FIFA headquarters & must deliver on the promise of transparency & good governance in his first or resign.

If Gianni Infantino is serious about reforming FIFA:
1) He must open FIFA accounts to investigators for as far back as possible
2) He must fully overhaul FIFA's Corporate Governance
3) FIFA must allow Governments concerned with financial management of their Football
4) FIFA must fully disclose financial terms & details of grant of rights to MEDIA companies.

According to the fully proven investigations by journalists such as Andrew Jennings & others, this appears to have been the biggest source of bribery to FIFA Executives in order to obtain media & broadcast rights to Football Tournaments.
5) FIFA must, within reasonable terms, allow Governments to scrutinise money trails to their Football Federations.

Again, according to the fully proven investigations by journalists such as Andrew Jennings & others, disgraced FIFA Executives, including those mentioned earlier in this post, on a regular basis received FIFA grants to their respective Confederations/Country Federations only to channel the money to their own private business empires instead! In return, they guaranteed voting blocks to re elect Sepp Blatter!

 Sept Blatter's Standard BLOCKING tactic was to suspend any country with the smallest hint of financial enquiry to how money was being handled! Now we all know why Blatter used to use this dirty tactic….to cover theft/corruption/money laundering by FIFA Executives from their respective Parliaments & Governments!

Gianni Infantino owes this to the billions of fans of the beautiful game across the world to clean up FIFA from its money laundering organisation with its mafiose executives, to the gatekeeper which used to have the motto "for the Good of the Game"

If Gianni Infantino does not deal with the rampant corruption, non existent corporate governance & & cronyism in FIFA in a transparent & effective manner, UEFA should pull out of FIFA membership & boycott all FIFA events including the World Cup. This will simply dry up the easy sponsorship money that has brought so much corruption & greed with it & ruined FIFA.

…just remember Infantino…….For the Good of the Game Infantino….for the Good of the Game!….Please!

Big spending Clubs in search of instant gratification are looking more & more silly!

Real Madrid & Chelsea, having spent hundreds of millions of dollars on players, continue to search for instant gratification.

Their respective President/owner & their boards may be rich & powerful, but in footballing terms they are idiots, and the laughing stock of the football world.

Love or hate them, Managers like Mourinho, Benitez (and Ancelotti, who Real Madrid must be regretting to let go) are brilliant in what they do. They are better than the egotistic superstars the have to deal with.

Letting them go in such embarrassing fashion simply makes Real Madrid & Chelsea look silly.