The 4th spot and relegation places are the hardest to predict in the EPL 2009-2010 Season

The EPL season will start in mid August. It has been another eventful off season with the biggest news in England being the departure of Ronaldo to Real Madrid and arrival of Ancelotti as the new coach at the rotating doors of Chelsea. Blogs and commentary of predictions for the new season are under way. In my view, there will be a few reasonably certainties which are easy to predict. Here they are:

Liverpool & Manchester United will be the main two contenders for the title again this year. Liverpool have lost Alonso but replaced him with the talented Aquilani. Sir Alex may have lost Ronaldo and Tevez, but has the ability to get the best out of Michael Owen. However, I think it is time for Liverpool to win the Premiership for the first time, 21 years after their last league title.

Chelsea, under yet again another (albeit experienced) coach new to the English game, and with an aging squad will be hovering around and will have a chance should Manchester United or Liverpool slip. However, I would still like to see a tactical approach to accommodate a Ballack/Lampard/Deco combination. If Ancelotti manages to do this, the effect may be irresistibly powerful.

As for the rest, and notice I did not mention Arsenal above, the following are my predictions:

1. Arsen Wenger's young Arsenal side will not have enough depth and experience to fend off the Top 4 wannabees this year like they did last year with Aston Villa and later in the season Everton.

The Gunners have not signed any new quality "experienced" players. No matter how entertaining the young players will play under the guidance of the magnificent Wenger, Fabregas, Arshavin, Gallas and other senior players will not be able to fully eliminate the lack of consistency which will catch up with Arsenal this year and they will lose them their "top 4" mantle for the first time in many years.

The fact that Wenger this week made the highly unusual statement ..."qualification for Champions League is not essential to Arsenal's finances"...shows nerves are already twitching at Arsenal!

2. Everton and Aston Villa will still be competitive but Moyes and O'Neill will still need to resort to getting the best out of their limited squads and hope injuries do not wreck their season.

This year Everton will need Moyes' magic and luck to reproduce a Top 5 finish. Aston Villa meanwhile will need O'Neill's magic but to also get over the loss of influencial Gareth Barry to Manchester City.

Both teams will be in the Top 8 by the season's end but will they be able the crack Top 4?

3. Manchester City, with all their money, are only managing to sign left overs from the big European Clubs' wish lists. I am not however suggesting the likes of Barry, Tevez, Santa Cruz, Robinho, Given, Adebayor, Bellamy etc are not great players. But none are in the "Galactico" level of popularity to give the Club the worldwide exposure which the new owners of Manchester City are hoping for.

a) Whilst I respect and like Mark Hughes, I am also not sure if he is the right person for such a difficult position and doubt whether he will manage to stay in the job till the end of the season. He did a great job of making Blackburn a competitive team. But what is being ask of him here is not exactly in the same level as his achievements up to now.

b) It is no longer easy to simply become a global name overnight by throwing money around as it was when Abramovich took over Chelsea,

c) Chelsea was already a semi glamorous Club due to its location in London and the likes of Guillet, Viali and Zola, and winning the Cup Winners Cup in the late 90s by the time.

d) However, the main problem with Manchester City is that even if they overcome everything else and Hughes moulds the players into a compact unit, Manchester City will always have to deal with the huge shadow over their head in the form of Manchester United.

4. That leaves the London trio of Spurs, West Ham and the much improved and impressive Fulham to fight for the remaining Top 10 finishes.

5. The relegation battle this year will potentially be the most exciting of all time! I make this claim, because two of the main contenders for relegation last year survived the battle! This makes the field of candidates for relegation the largest in the living memory:

Hull and Stoke are still in the EPL this year but will have to count on every point to survive again. However, they have immediate EPL experience in their survival battle to count on, whilst the newly promoted Wolves are yet to survive the EPL more than one season and it remains to be seen whether Birmingham will be as gritty as they were under Steve Bruce in their last successful spell in the EPL.

Burnley are making their EPL debut and first appearance in the top flight since 1976, but are a Club with rich footballing history, one of the founding English League Clubs and one of the few who have won all four major English League Championships.

To add to the above list, it takes a bad start, a few injuries to crucial players, and a loss of confidence for the likes of Sunderland, Portsmuth and Wigan to find themselves struggling. At the end, most of the usual strugglers have a better chance of taking valuable points from their relegation rivals this year than at anytime in the past as the bottom teams are more evenly matched this year.

It is hard to predict the teams most likely to be relegated, but I think Burnley, Hull and Wolves will be the most likely, closely followed by Stoke City.

This brings me to the end of this post, and the time to predict the hardest of them all this year: Who will end up as the fourth team and get the potential lucrative entry to the Champions League:

A glance at the respective squads and level of experience of the contenders tells me that if Mark Hughes and his team get it right, Manchester City on paper has the capacity to make the leap forward into Top 4. Everton and Aston Villa simply do not have the depth in their squads to match Manchester City. However, any slip from Manchester City or any of the other pretenders, and Wenger and his young squad will steal the 4th spot again.

At any case, another exciting EPL is awaiting us. It's a league which in terms of technical and tactical ability is far from the best in Europe. That accolade goes to Spain, and then Germany in my view, especially considering that EPL laggs behind Spain and Germany in average goal per game and average attendance per game (although it sometimes beats Spain in attendance averages).

Nevertheless, EPL is the most exciting and popular football league in the world and makes compelling viewing. Enjoy! and may your team does well, as long as Liverpool wins the title this year! :)

Are other big club Managers jealous of Perez and Real? Will Real's strategy of shuting other big teams out of the transfer market work?

Question: Are the likes of Berlusconi (Milan), Beckenbauer (Bayern), Ferguson (Manchester Utd, Wenger (Arsenal) and Laporta (Barcelona) simply jealous of Perez and Real, or do they have a an important point to make in their criticism of Perez and his outlandish spending this season?

Question: In practical terms, is Perez doing anything different to what Abramovich has attempted to do at Chelsea, or the Arab owners of Manchester City are doing?

Question: Hasn't the practice of assembling the world best players in teh one club been attempted by other clubs as far back as mid 70s (eg Barcelona buying Cruyff and Neeskens in the 70s, and Maradona and many others in the 80s?, or Milan with their Dutch trio and other stars last decade?)

Question: Is all the commotion anything but professional jealousy?

The answer to the above questions is Yes & No!

Yes, this has been attempted many times before, most recently in case of Real in the early 200s with the Galacticos, Chelsea and Manchester City. But whilst professional jealousy certainly plays a part, it is not the only reason many people are worried about the reckless behaviour Perez and Real's Board.

Of course, every coach, and most fans would love to have the likes of Benzema, Kaka and Ronaldo playing for their team. But that is where the extent of the professional jealousy stops.

Perez is guilty of:
- Taking the "working man's game" to its ultimate breaking point
- If unsuccessful in "Buying" trophies, will once again take Real Madrid to the brink of bankruptcy
- Potentially shifting a huge amount of TV/Merchandising money from other leagues to Real, and starving smaller leagues even more than before of essential funds

What is the fun of watching football when a team "buys" its way to glory? How different is is it to match fixing in practical terms? How competitive are things when even Sir Alex Ferguson admits that Perez and his high spending strategy has made it difficult for the likes of Manchester Utd to stay competitive in the transfer market this season?

But football is a funny game, and coaches like Ferguson are clever tacticians! They will get more out of their players and will beat Real with fewer resources but more discipline.

I predict Real's success rate, considering the huge capital outlay, will in relative terms be no more than Abramovich's Chelsea have achieved so far. When/if my prediction comes true, Perez will go down in history as a typical Spanish "Madman" Club President.

The unfortunate thing is however, that he might take the Club and even the beautiful game down with him! Let's hope the game is stronger than money and the mad businessmen wasting it!

Money may win Real Madrid a few trophies, but it won't buy them lasting glory!

Real Madrid and their newly elected President Florentino Perez are once again making a mockery out of the "World game" by attempting to buy themselves glory.

Real under Perez's leadership did the same thing a few years ago with the now famous "Galacticos" policy. Perez went shopping and bought amongst many others, Figo, Zidane, Beckham and Owen at ridiculous fees to bring back the glory days to Madrid. They won the Premiera League a few times and a CL trophy (or perhaps two depending on how the time period of his presidency is looked at.....and then they started to believe Real had actually organically made it all happen and guess what happened next?

They started to fade away after the 2002 CL win, Perez lost his position, and they have been rather ordinary every since, blaming coach after coach for their failure to plan for the future and develop youngsters through the ranks.

Now Perez has once again been elected with the promise to "buy" Real's way back into the history books at any cost and in a totally shameless fashion. And as the nature of Club Presidency in Spain dictates, Perez has to be flashier and more outrageous this time. So, he's paid more than 200m Euros for Ronaldo and Kaka, both of whom will reportedly earn more than 300 thousand euros a week after tax.

In doing so, Perez hopes to get enough time to "buy" a few trophies for Real, before his ego once again clashes with the Board's collective egos, the coach gets blamed, and Ronaldo starts throwing his usual narcissistic tantrums!

You might challenge me by asking the same question about other rich European clubs. Chelsea and their appearing overnight "funny Money divided between so few Putin supporters" Russian money aside, who have as yet failed to buy their European glory (thanks to John Terry slipping on the ball in last year's CL Final), most other big European clubs such as AC Milan, Barcelona, Manchester United, Liverpool, Juventus and Bayern all try to buy the best players in their desperate attempts to get their hands on the CL trophy.

That is a fair comment. However, none go crazy like Perez and Real do, and all try their hands on developing some of their young talent as well. Take Barcelona and its Youth Academy or Manchester United and Sir Alex for instance. Love him or loath him(and I belong to the later group) Sir Alex has an uncanny ability to nurture young talent into his first team (endless list of Neville brothers, Beckham, Giggs, Ronaldo, Butt etc) as well as letting restless players leave. Even the self serving, self promoting Berlusconi at AC Milan never behaved as shamelessly as Perez is at Real.

At the end of it all, Perez is simply taking the Beautiful game further and further towards disaster whilst trying to buy his way into glory of the history books.
In years to come, rest assured Real fans, and football fans worldwide will remember the expensive players who won Real the trophies. But Perez will be judged as one of the architects of "prostituting the passion of the beautiful game in order to buy himself glory"

The Socceroos qualified for the World Cup 2010 in an emphatic if not stylish fashion

Congratulations to the mighty Socceroos, Pim Verbeek, FFA and all backroom staff and all supporters of the mighty Socceroos for their back to back qualification for the world's biggest sporting event, the FIFA World Cup.

Thank God! Gone are the days when the Socceroos and their ever loyal supporters had to wait for the nail biting matches to determine the last qualification place! The Socceroos were the second nation to qualify for next year's World Cup on Saturday(in reality Japan and Australia qualified around the same time as the first two qualifying nations).

Since taking over as the Socceroos Coach, Pim Verbeek time and time again reminded everyone in Australia, in his slightly arrogant but endearing media interviews, that he was not recruited to deliver a team capable of playing beautiful attractive football! He was there to make sure Australia qualified for the World Cup! And now he has delivered, albeit by producing a regimented, disciplined and not so pretty to watch team which has shown itself capable of defending well and at times snatching crucial last gasp victories. A trait that all successful teams must possess.

Australia have qualified from the admittedly easier of the two Asian Group comfortably and in a dominant fashion. So far, with two matches left to play, Australia are also the only team in the world not having conceded a single goal in their qualifying campaign. However, their performances have been inconsistent, at times painfully hard to watch, and on occasions breath taking. Pim Verbeek will hopefully use the remaining time between now and the WC to fine tune the team into a more consistent unit.

The next immediate task however is to make sure the fans in Australia are not taken for granted between now and WC 2010. The Australian fans deserve to see all the available stars in their long awaited celebration game in Sydney against Bahrain in June. By fielding a very strong squad and providing an attractive attacking game next Wednesday, Ben Buckley and the FFA can avoid repeating the absolute PR disaster of last year's second class Socceroos 0-1 loss to China and risk alienating adoring fans and their hard earned cash during the current financial crisis. On top of this, the team can take valuable points out of its encounter with Bahrain and Japan, without the pressure of qualifying points at stake.

Having said all that, like many other Socceroos fans, I have been following their qualifying campaigns since 1973 and have travelled the emotional roller coaster with them over the years. It therefore fills me with great joy and pride to see them qualify as one of the very first nations for the next WC. Congratulations to the players, Pim Verbeek, Graham Arnold, all backroom staff, the FFA, and last but not least all the fans in the Green and Gold army.

With a little bit more luck than we got against Italy in 2006, we might even go all the way to the final in 2010!

Barcelona's CL triumph means so much in so many ways

The magnificent team of Pepe Guardiola, the Catalan giants Barcelona have deservedly once again become the European Champions. They comprehensively outmanouvered Alex Ferguson's side in the final in Rome, and frankly if it wasn't for the ever reliant Van der Saar in goal (and the post denying the magnific Xavi), Barcelona could have won by a margin which would have potentially collapsed and destroyed the legend of Manchester Utd which Alex Ferguson has masterfully built up over the past twenty plus years.

This is a great win which means so much to so many fans in so many ways all over the world. For one thing, not only Manchester United's legendary luck did not save them this time, the way Barcelona dominated the game, all the luck in the world could not have saved Sir Alex and his team this time, as it had done in their past two CL final appearances (see below)

Thank you Guardiola and Barcelona for playing the beautiful game how it is meant to be played, to brings tears of joy and loud laughter to the fans all over the world.

Another beautiful thing about this game was the fact that for all their money as two of the richest clubs in the world, there were no less than 6 Catalans in Barcelona's line up, and of course Guardiola himself is a Catalan. Some of the other players were also the product of their famed Youth Academy (e.g. Messi)

Whilst Sir Alex is undoubtedly a masterful manager and one in a million, most fans who do not support Manchester United as well as many Manchester United fans acknowledge that Manchester United, whilst commanded for their fighting spirit, were rather lucky to have won their last two CL titles:

- In 1999 against Bayern Munich: This has formally gone down as one of the most dramatic football matches of all time. Bayern went up 1-0 in the first half, then were unlucky not to go further ahead as they hit both a post and the bar. Then Manchester United unbelievably scored two goals in the 92nd and 93rd minutes of the 3 minutes added time of the match and won 2-1
- in 2008, the match ended up in the penalty shoot out. John Terry, the ever reliable hard working Chelsea Captain had the chance to convert the final penalty in the shoot out and win the match for Chelsea....and he slipped and missed his penalty...and Manchester United won the subsequent set of penalties and became the CL Champions once again.

So, all true football fans of the world rejoice! The magnificent Barcelona team comprehensively dominated and defeated the ever so lucky Manchester Utd. The fans of Chelsea and Bayern Munich who were so unlucky to lose the CL final to Manchester Utd in the past can smile again, and in this 10th anniversary of the heart aching defeat of Bayern, and the first anniversary of Chelsea's defeat look at the bright side: At last Manchester United's luck may have run its course, and the myth is no longer there!
Adios Alex!

Did Bayern give Klinsman a fair chance?

Bayern sacked their coach after ten months in charge.
Jurgen Klinsman is the legendary former National Manschaft (German National Team) striker, and Germany's coach in the last WC in their home soil. He took them to the semi finals with an attractive and attacking style of play which Germany had failed to show since the early 1990s when they were the World Champions (and Klinsman was one of their main players).

Klinsman had never coached a club prior to his posting at Bayern. The ins and outs of handling a big Football Club, its internal politics and fans' expectations are not an easy task and require amongst other factors past experience in dealing with egotistic stars and impatient fans, full management support and patience and vision by the coach.

Klinsman lacked the first three, and his vision is still subject to question. At the end he lost the support and the patience of both fans and management, and according to press reports, the respect of his stars in the dressing room.

Football Clubs like Bayern are big business. Bayern turns over in excess of $800m Australian dollars a year. (Not sure if the ENTIRE sporting market of all sports in Australia would reach that figure). This makes instant gratification more than just the pleasure of playing the simple game of football. The Club's management (and Bayern is in fact privately owned) become very nervous when results are less than 100% satisfactory! Simply because 10s of millions of dollars of potential revenue are at stake.

But can Klinsman be considered more of a victim of the commercialisation of football than anything else? Given a few more years, could he have been as successful and his reign as long as the likes of Wenger and Ferguson in Arsenal and Man Utd?

Whilst the answer is probably yes, the fact remains that ultimately his inability to get results out of crucial matches in Bundesliga (and the humiliation against Barcelona in the CL) was the main reason he lost his job. Amazingly, he became a national hero at the WC in 2006 because he managed to guide Germany to produce good results in the WC matches where it counted!

During his tenure at Bayern however, the team had many opportunities to go to the top of the table, and each time failed to produce the desired result (except in case of a lucky last minute 2-1 win over Hoffenheim before the winter break and of course some good results in the Champions League (CL). In many instances Bayern naively lost their lead or lost crucial points due to tactical inability to take control of these crucial matches.

Producing results in matches that count is a very crucial component of successful coaching at this level. e.g. it's Chelsea's 0-0 at Nu Camp, or Man Utd wining 1-0 at Porto and going through.

Klinsman in recent weeks had a few of these crucial matches and lost all of them! 4-0 to Barcelona, 5-1 to Wolfsburg, and 1-0 to Schalke in his last match in charge. His record of 8 wins 2 draws and 7 losses in all competitions since the winter break was simply not good enough for a team of Bayern's status. In fact, these heavy and embarrassing losses may have irreversibly damaged the psychological advantage Bayern had established against their rivals in Bundesliga by wining the double three times in the last four years.

It would be very ironic if job of coaching Bayern next goes to the Dutchman Frank Rijkaard, as speculated by the press. Rijkaard spat at Rudy Voller in an elimination match between Germany and Holland in the WC in 1990. The referee showed both players a red card. Klinsman, without his partner Voller, Klinsman scored and single handedly won the match 2-1 for Germans. They went on to win the WC and Klinsman became a superstar!

Rijkaard won the CL and Spanish Premiera League with Barcelona a couple of years ago before falling out with star players and losing his job. He would be a great choice to replace Bayern, but only if the Management shows more support and patience. Otherwise Klinsman's faith will await him too.

Champions League 2009

Those of us who were fortunate enough to watch the return quarter final leg between Liverpool and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (London) witnessed one of the greatest and most exciting football matches of the past 20 years. The 4-4 draw confirmed Liverpool as one of the most entertaining teams of all time. They produced a 5-4 win in teh UEFA Cup final against Alaves of Spain in 2001. Then in 2005 fell behind 3-0 in the first half against Milan in the CL Final, and came back to draw 3-3 and win on penalties, and now the 4-4 draw with Chelsea! To put the icing on the cake, a week later they drew 4-4 with Arsenal at Anfield in a EPL match!

However, sadly Liverpool were eliminated. The semi final between Chelsea and Barcelona should be a great encounter. But, let's hope Barcelona beat Chelsea and go all the way and win this year's CL final. That would be a victory for Football, how it should be played and how entertaining it is. Barcelona are simply the best team in the world at the moment.

On the other hand, I hope Manchester United lose to Arsenal in the other semi final. Whilst I admire the club, Sir Alex and what they have achieved during his long reign, I can not believe how lucky they have been along the way! Look at their two CL triumphs! In 2001, Bayern were 1-0 up, hit both Man Utd's post and bar, and Man Utd won by scoring two goals in the 92nd and 93rd minutes of the added time at the end of the match. Then last year, John Terry, normally the most reliable player around had to score his penalty and win the CL for Chelsea in the final, and he slipped and missed!! man Utd went on to win the Cl on penalties in that match.

My prediction:

Manchester Utd vs Barcelona final

and Barcelona will give Man Utd a footballing lesson of a life time and crush them 3-1. That would make up for all their previous lucky wins!

Rick

Bayern may be able to salvage some pride

Thank God Bayern pulled themselves together and beat Frankfurt 4-0 on Saturday! After the disastrous (both tactical and team) performance at Nu Camp against Barcelona, only an emphatic win would have saved Klinsman.They now need to have a face saving (2-1 would do!) win on Tues night in the return leg against Barcelona in the Alianz Stadion in Munich, and then concentrate on finishing first or second in the Bundesliga.In the off season, they need to sort out their defence, hope their new Russian signing can fortify the midfield, and bring one or two more super stars to match the quality of Ribery.Goal Keeper: Buffon, Frey or Manuel NeuerDefence: Rumour is Cannavaro is interested. Breno needs to be loaned out, both to gain experience, and to see if he can in fact make it in Europe...so far has shown little promiseMidfield: the new signing is fineForwards: teh signing from Hamburg may not be enough as cover to Klose and Tony. sad to see Podolski leave but to be fair he's been treated poorly in the sense that he was never given enough regular first team starts to prove his worth to Bayern. Good luck to him at his beloved Koln next year.....wrong choice in my view....he should have moved to EPL.