Thursday, March 25, 2010

Champions League quarter final pairings: What to expect?

The Champions League final will be held in Madrid in May. Sadly however, the start studded Real Madrid will not be there to win the title at their Bernabeu Stadium! The star studded but at times misfiring Madrid side lost to the gallant Lyon side who despite going to the return leg with the narrowest of margins never lost their self belief.

Whilst I wrongly underestimated Lyon's depth & predicted Madrid would easily go through, I can still save face by referring to my several blogs at the beginning of the season when I claimed Real were a collection of great but selfish players who would not be able to deliver Mr Perez instant gratification, at least in the first year of his reign. The fact that Real have given Barcelona & the out of this world Messi a run for the Primera in fact comes as a surprise!

My other major flop for the round was Chelsea's loss to the arrogant master tactician, Jose Mourinho & his Inter Milan side. Mourinho simply rubbed salt to the Chelsea supporters' wound by reminding what they are missing out of since his departure!

Overall, this year's quarter finals amazingly are littered with surprise qualifiers. The elimination of giant former winners AC Milan, Juventus, Liverpool & Real Madrid as well as Porto & the newcomers Chelsea mean that the less fanciful CSKA Moksva, Bordeaux & Lyon have made the quarterfinals easier to predict, at least on paper!

The most exciting match up is undoubtedly Manchester United vs Bayern Munich. Manchester United comfortably disposed of a misfiring AC Milan whilst Bayern at the just scrapped past a gallant & unlucky Fiorentina side on away goals rule due to a masterful goal by Arjen Robben.

The last gasp heartbreaking final win by Manchester United in 1999 & the subsequent home & the subsequent quarter final home & away win by Bayern on their way to win the CL in 2001 means these two teams have an unbreakable history. Also, in Robben & Rooney, I believe we will witness the second & third current best players in the world going to the battlefield.

My Prediction: If Bayern's defence holds off Rooney & co in the first leg in Munich, Bayern may go on to win the tie. Otherwise, Manchester United are the favourites to go through.

Barcelona vs Arsenal: Arguably the two most skillful & entertaining club sides in the world repeating their CL Final encounter of a few years ago. With Messi in his current form speeding towards the super stardom legendary status, Barcelona are favourite to take advantage of Wenger's side's occasional lapses & go through.

Lyon vs Bordeaux: The all French tussle will produce the first French side in the semi finals of the CL since Monaco reached the final & lost to Mourinho's Porto a few years ago. Lyon have been a consistent performer in the CL League & go the battle with the confidence boosting elimination of Ronaldo & Co of Madrid. On the other hand, Laurent Blanc has built a masterful compact unit at Bordeaux capable of many surprises. I believe Bordeaux will continue their dream run to the semi finals.

Inter Milan vs CSKA Moskva: Whilst CSKA have quietly enjoyed good solid performances & slightly easier draws to get to the quarter finals, they are also a great team which fully deserve their position at this level. On the other hand, hats off to Mourinho for getting Inter Milan through the battle with Chelsea. I still feel uncomfortable about Inter & believe CSKA are capable of causing a huge upset!

No matter which team you are following, the quarter finals will be as exciting as ever. Let's just hope they do not get too tight & defensive. The away goal rule is making home teams timid & nervous & has a negative impact on the game as a spectacle.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Early signs of trouble for Joachim Löew & Germany in the upcoming World Cup in South Africa

The German national team, or Die Nationalmannschaft are known as the ultimate "Tournament" team. They usually have a slow start in World Cup tournaments & grind their way into the latter stages whilst more talented teams fall by the way side & get eliminated. Germany (including west Germany) have reached the World Cup semi final 11 times, the final 7 times & have of course been winners in 3 occasions. Outside the 1990 win & the 2006 campaign, they have always been slow starters & at times labeled boring and/or lucky. Nevertheless, Germany's performance & record in the world Cup continues to generate intense envy amongst rival fans.

Germany are currently the Under 17, Under 19 & Under 21 European Champions & the crop of young talent coming through the ranks is almost second to none in Europe. However, with less than 100 days till the start of the World Cup, most the young talented players will miss out on Loew's team selection for the World Cup. Only Ozil, Marin & Kroos have any realistic chance of being selected in the final 23 man squad for the World Cup.

The recent friendly 0-1 defeat to Madonna's hapless Argentina in Munich raised many worrying questions about Germany's prospects in South Africa. The shortcomings were clear in all areas. The following is a list:

1. Loew & his team have failed to sign a new contract with the DBF beyond the World Cup. Whilst both the German Federation & Loew have diplomatically agreed to decide to postpone negotiations to after the World Cup in order to avoid destabilisation, the fact that they have not reached an agreement will by itself cause some disharmony.

2. In the goal keeping department, Loew's stubborn insistence to allow Lehmann to be the no 1 keeper in Euro 2008, and the subsequent recent tragic death of Robert Enke has left this always reliable area of the German team well short of international experience.
Both Rene Adler of Leverkusen & Manuel Neuer of Schalke have shown promising signs of being able to emulate the feats of their legendary colleagues of the previous years. Nevertheless, the fact remains that between the two of them they only have 11 caps, and neither plays for a clubside which appears in the Champions League regularly. Therefore, both have limited international exposure.

In Central defence, where problems were evident in 2006 & Euro 2008, a reliable long term partner for Mertesacker is yet to be found. Tasci of Stuttgart & Boeteng of Hamburg as well as Westermann of Schalke are all unproven in international level.

Then there is the issue of where to play Lahm! He played so effectively as a left back in WC 2006. But Lahm has appeared as an attacking right back for Bayern all season & has stated he prefers to play in that position. He's also stated it takes him a few weeks to get used to switching from right to left. Should Loew try why he successfully experimented on with in Euro 2006 again? i.e. Use Podolski as a right midfield player & emulate the successful Lahm/Robben combination at Bayern?

Then there's the question of total loss of form by Ozil! The promising talented midfielder has had a poor run of form & the question now is whether he should be selected at all. On top of that, Ballack's relationship with Loew is still at best cordial. This can't be good for team moral.

Nevertheless, there is an abundance of talent in the likes of Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller, Sammy Khedira & Marco Marin who will help reduce Loew's tactical headaches (but not selection headaches). Nevertheless, they are all untested on the big stage.

Finally, there are major headaches upfront in attack. Kuryani is the in form German striker right now & he's out of favour. Both Podolski & Klose have been out of form & between the two of them scored a miserly 3 goals all season! I believe Cacau & Kiessling are not of World Cup pedigree & Patrick Helmes will take too long to reach his optimal form after a long injury lay off.

And last but least, as a Bayern & Germany fan, I am yet to understand what the big fuss about Mario Gomez is! He was a total flop in Euro 2006 & his international record is by no means impressive. Yet both Loew & Bayern insist on starting him in every game!

To top it all off, Germany are in the toughest group with Ghana, Australia & Serbia ready to Pounce on any mistake they can!

The good news however is that before every World Cup & European Championships, thousands of obituaries like mine are written about Germany, and they still make it to the latter stages & the finals!

As Gary Lineker famously said (paraphrasing) "Football is a game which 22 men run after a ball & try to score, and at the end Germany wins!"

Enjoy the World Cup & good luck to whichever team you support!