Euro 2012 Finals promise plenty of drama & thrills!

The draw for the next European Championships which will be held in mid 2012 in Poland & Ukraine was made in late 2011. The competition remains very popular & is widely acknowledged as the third most watched event in the world (after FIFA World Cup & the Olympics). As a result it will be expanded to 24 teams from 2016. In my view this is a silly money grabbing idea even though UEFA currently has 53 members!

Due to the fact that both co hosts were seeded, the group stage draw produced very uneven groupings with two groups being as groups of death. Poland & Ukraine would have both been in pot 3 (or even 4) normally, but due to hosting rights were elevated to the seeded pot 1 condemning many more competitive teams to pots 2 & 3 as a result!

Here are my predictions for the tournament: Spain & Germany are clear favourites to win the tournament, and they were the finalists in the 2008 competition. Holland & England are also strong & Italy may also pose a threat.

Spain will face Italy in the group stage & in Ireland & Croatia have very difficult opponents. I do believe both Croatia & Ireland are capable of surprising Italy into second place. In case of Ireland their wily Italian coach Trapattoni, knows all about Italian football & how to beat them!

Germany are once again drawn in arguably the toughest group in the tournament & in drawing Holland, Denmark & Portugal will have a tough task to qualify. But if Germany manage to continue to perform at the level they have been performing since the 2010 World Cup, they have the potential to win both Euro 2012 and World Cup 2014. On the other hand, I believe Holland will be too strong for Portugal & Denmark to qualify ahead of them.

Neither England nor France impress me! I find England's coach Capello pompous & out of touch & hope Sweden or Ukraine can at least knock one of these two teams out! England will be in trouble if they do not get a central defence pairing right, with injuries & aging legs of the likes of King, Terry & Ferdinand making them questionable defensively, AND will not be able to use Wayne Rooney for the first two matches in the tournament due to suspension, which was reduced from 3 to 2. On the other hand, France continue to show any sign of life & remain uninspiring.

In the easiest group of the tournament Poland & Russia are favourites to qualify for the knockout quarter final round but I can not see either team go beyond that!

I will be writing regular blogs during the tournament & will continue my predictions as the competition progresses! So please visit my page regularly!

Australia's Socceroos vs Germany, facts, stats & key German players to watch out for

The Socceroos will undoubtedly face a much more difficult opening game next Monday morning in South Africa 2010 than they did in Germany against japan in 2006.

As both a fan of the Socceroos & Germany since Australia's first qualification for Germany 1974 World Cup, I was hugely disappointed when my two beloved teams were drawn together! But I must say Germany has brought the Socceroos luck in the past as Australia's two previous qualifications to the World Cup were in 1974 & 2006 when the Cup was held in Germany in both occasions.

In the absence of their influential Captain Michael Ballack (above left) who got injured in the English FA Cup Final whilst playing for Chelsea, the new Captain & vice Captain, Philip Lahm (middle) & Bastian Schweinsteiger (right) will be two of the key experienced leaders for Germany in South Africa. Here are some of the facts & stats about Germany:

• Germany are well known as a disciplined "Tournament" team capable of lasting till the later rounds of the Cup. This is clearly the case as demonstrated by their record in the World Cup:


• Germany have reached the World Cup final a record 7 times (equal to Brazil's) and the semi finals a record 11 times.


• They have won the World Cup 3 times (Brazil have won it 5 times & Italy 4)


• They have won their opening game in the last 5 World Cups. As the SBS Football Commentator Craig Foster rightly points out, experienced World Cup teams know how important it is to win the first match, draw or win the second & rest players for the third (depending on potential draw). This was evident after Australia's win in its opening match of the 2006 World Cup against Japan.


• Their team in South Africa is their youngest since they won the World Cup in 1954. In contrast, Australia's squad's average age makes the Socceroos the second oldest team in South Africa.


• Only 7 players from Germany's 2006 team are present in South Africa. Although most players in the current squad did play in Euro 2008. Germany reached the final of that tournament for a record 6th time (another proof of their resilience in tournaments)

Germany had to deal with several injuries to key players as well as disagreements between the coach & influential players which resulted in axing of some key players. As mentioned, Ballack was ruled out 3 weeks ago. The no 1 goal keeper Rene Adler was also ruled out due to a rib injury, and holding midfielder Simon Rolfes due to an ankle injury.

The German coach Loew refused to recall the highly experienced Torsten Fringes, a veteran of 2002 & 2006 World Cups in place of Ballack. He also ruled out a return for Kevin Kuranyi, who scored 18 goals this season in the German Bundesliga. As a result, it was reported that Germany had selected 6 strikers in the final 23 squad.

Whilst this is correct in theory, English speaking commentators were as usual too simplistic in their appraisal. The German coach, like many other top coaches around the world ins a big fan of the modern 4-2-3-1 system. This means most probably two of the wingers in the 3 number will be from the 6 strikers. Here's my prediction for Germany's line up on Monday morning:

Neuer (Goal keeper)

Lahm (C) Friedrich Mertesacker Badstuber (or Jansen)

Kedira Schweinsteiger

Podolski Muller Ozil

Klose

Key players to watch out for:

• Captain Philip Lahm, a world class left & right back. Appeared as left back in the 2006 World Cup & scored the opening goal of the tournament, but appears to have settled into his preferred right back role
• Bastian Schweinsteiger: is to fill Ballack's holding midfield role, which he so successfully did for his Clubside Bayern Munich during the European season which earned him comparisons to Spain's Xavi.
• Podolaski & Klose, whilst they both had terrible seasons scoring a total of 5 goals between them, their international goal scoring record for Germany is fantastic. They scored 8 goals between them in 2006.
• Ozil, Kroos, Merin & Muller: all less than 22 years old world class attacking midfielders capable of scoring goals from seemingly impossible positions.
• Mario Gomez: Bundesliga's most expensive German player who has up to now disappointed at international level & is therefore desperate to prove his calibre & class (given the chance)

There are several young midfield players including Tony Kroos & Marco Merin, and the other three forwards Cacau, Marion Gomez & Stefan Kiessling who are hoping to feature in the starting line up, but the above line up seems to be the most likely based on most reports I have seen on the net.

Germany's weaknesses which the Socceroos may be able to exploit are:

• Absence of Michael Ballack
• Lack of goal scoring form of Klose & Podolski, although they both have enviable international goal scoring records
• unsettled central defence: for the past 6-7 years a reliable pairing has been in short supply
• Young squad: Many of the above players have had less than 10 full international caps
• Underestimating the Socceroos legendary will to fight tooth & nail

Having watched the last warm up matches for both teams, the Germans played a very well disciplined second half against Bosnia & scored three goals in the process, whilst Australia were badly exposed whilst trying to play an open attacking match against the USA& conceded 3 goals in the process.

My prediction: Germany's faster players will get the better of the aging Socceroos. However, no matter which teams finishes on top, I will be heartbroken & happy at the same time!

Germany to win by 2 goals, 3-0 or 3-1. I am still hoping for a Socceroos/Germany vs England in the second round!

Early signs of trouble for Joachim Löew & Germany in the upcoming World Cup in South Africa

The German national team, or Die Nationalmannschaft are known as the ultimate "Tournament" team. They usually have a slow start in World Cup tournaments & grind their way into the latter stages whilst more talented teams fall by the way side & get eliminated. Germany (including west Germany) have reached the World Cup semi final 11 times, the final 7 times & have of course been winners in 3 occasions. Outside the 1990 win & the 2006 campaign, they have always been slow starters & at times labeled boring and/or lucky. Nevertheless, Germany's performance & record in the world Cup continues to generate intense envy amongst rival fans.

Germany are currently the Under 17, Under 19 & Under 21 European Champions & the crop of young talent coming through the ranks is almost second to none in Europe. However, with less than 100 days till the start of the World Cup, most the young talented players will miss out on Loew's team selection for the World Cup. Only Ozil, Marin & Kroos have any realistic chance of being selected in the final 23 man squad for the World Cup.

The recent friendly 0-1 defeat to Madonna's hapless Argentina in Munich raised many worrying questions about Germany's prospects in South Africa. The shortcomings were clear in all areas. The following is a list:

1. Loew & his team have failed to sign a new contract with the DBF beyond the World Cup. Whilst both the German Federation & Loew have diplomatically agreed to decide to postpone negotiations to after the World Cup in order to avoid destabilisation, the fact that they have not reached an agreement will by itself cause some disharmony.

2. In the goal keeping department, Loew's stubborn insistence to allow Lehmann to be the no 1 keeper in Euro 2008, and the subsequent recent tragic death of Robert Enke has left this always reliable area of the German team well short of international experience.
Both Rene Adler of Leverkusen & Manuel Neuer of Schalke have shown promising signs of being able to emulate the feats of their legendary colleagues of the previous years. Nevertheless, the fact remains that between the two of them they only have 11 caps, and neither plays for a clubside which appears in the Champions League regularly. Therefore, both have limited international exposure.

In Central defence, where problems were evident in 2006 & Euro 2008, a reliable long term partner for Mertesacker is yet to be found. Tasci of Stuttgart & Boeteng of Hamburg as well as Westermann of Schalke are all unproven in international level.

Then there is the issue of where to play Lahm! He played so effectively as a left back in WC 2006. But Lahm has appeared as an attacking right back for Bayern all season & has stated he prefers to play in that position. He's also stated it takes him a few weeks to get used to switching from right to left. Should Loew try why he successfully experimented on with in Euro 2006 again? i.e. Use Podolski as a right midfield player & emulate the successful Lahm/Robben combination at Bayern?

Then there's the question of total loss of form by Ozil! The promising talented midfielder has had a poor run of form & the question now is whether he should be selected at all. On top of that, Ballack's relationship with Loew is still at best cordial. This can't be good for team moral.

Nevertheless, there is an abundance of talent in the likes of Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller, Sammy Khedira & Marco Marin who will help reduce Loew's tactical headaches (but not selection headaches). Nevertheless, they are all untested on the big stage.

Finally, there are major headaches upfront in attack. Kuryani is the in form German striker right now & he's out of favour. Both Podolski & Klose have been out of form & between the two of them scored a miserly 3 goals all season! I believe Cacau & Kiessling are not of World Cup pedigree & Patrick Helmes will take too long to reach his optimal form after a long injury lay off.

And last but least, as a Bayern & Germany fan, I am yet to understand what the big fuss about Mario Gomez is! He was a total flop in Euro 2006 & his international record is by no means impressive. Yet both Loew & Bayern insist on starting him in every game!

To top it all off, Germany are in the toughest group with Ghana, Australia & Serbia ready to Pounce on any mistake they can!

The good news however is that before every World Cup & European Championships, thousands of obituaries like mine are written about Germany, and they still make it to the latter stages & the finals!

As Gary Lineker famously said (paraphrasing) "Football is a game which 22 men run after a ball & try to score, and at the end Germany wins!"

Enjoy the World Cup & good luck to whichever team you support!