Friday, April 27, 2012

Chelsea & Bayern elimination of the favourites to reach the Champions League final was not a total surprise as most commentators claim!


All those "me too" football commentators across the world who profess to be admirers of Spanish football, Barcelona & Real Madrid must still be under sedative!

As this wonderfully witty picture shows, who would have thought Chelsea would end up meeting Bayern in the final in May.....at the expense of the magnificent yet vulnerable Barcelona, and impressive yet overrated Real Madrid?

I can tell you, being involved with Bayern's die hard fans online, ever since the draw was made Bayern always knew they were in with a chance to become the first ever team in Champions League history (not European Cup history) to host the final in their own stadium.

Most of the almost nauseatingly Spanish football following commentators around the world, including our own respectable SBS commentators in Australia, either fail to realise or neglect to inform their viewers of the impressive record Bayern have against Real Madrid. 

Although records mean little, I would like to point out that Bayern also beat Real in the semi finals of their last successful Champions League campaign in 2001. Bayern won 0-1 at Bernabau in Madrid & 2-1 in the reverse fixture in Munich, and went all the way to lifting the trophy. The last meeting between the two giants was in the 2007 Champions League season. Bayern again won 2-1 at home, lost 2-3 in Madrid & eliminated Real on away goals rule.

And if you want to know much about Bayern's footballing pedigree, it suffices to say this will be their 9th final (equal second all time record with AC Milan, Real have appeared in 13 finals). They are one of the only three teams who have won the European Cup in 3 successive years or more (Real won it in its first 5 years from inception, Bayern & Ajax won 3 years in a row each in the 70s)



So, to the well informed football fans, the Bayern vs Real match was very much an encounter of equal heavy weights. But this year, I have no doubt Mourinho is to blame for Real's failure! Yes the master tactician made it easier for Bayern to succeed! Of course he ended up, as predicted, blaming player fatigue for the loss (Real played Barcelona in the "Clasico" on the weekend in between the two matches vs Bayern)

Mourinho made some questionable substitutions in Munich in order to defend the lucky 1-1 result. This allowed Bayern to control possession & take the upper hand & eventually & deservedly score in the last minute (and hence go to Madrid with a 2-1 advantage). Then in Madrid, Mourinho & his tired players decided to protect a 2-0 lead after a mere 14 minutes for the remaining 106 minutes, against a Bayern team which has scored more than 100 goals in all competitions this year! 

Amazingly, even though this time around Bayern were 2-0 down after a merely 14 minutes, most of their loyal followers did not feel nervous as we were certain Bayern would score. What in fact surprised many was the fact that the game went to extra time & penalties.

As for Chelsea, whilst I fully command their defensive discipline & acknowledge their tactics, I believe they are in the final because Barcelona failed to take advantage of the many opportunities they had to score in both legs, including of course Messi's missed penalty at Camp Nuo. And Chelsea, with its veterans on display again, is the kind of team capable of making a team like Barcelona pay a heavy price for those multiple missed opportunities, and they did exactly that!

The problem with Barcelona is that they are so universally admired that their system & tactics have been analysed a million times & most coaches realise that a counter attacking defensive formation is the best way to block Barcelona & potentially beat them, which is what Chelsea did so successfully albeit not in an entertaining fashion!

It must also be mentioned that Di Matteo, who should be commanded for turning Chelsea's fortunes around is such a short space of time, had very obviously taken a leaf out of Jose Mourinho's boring yet effective tactics whilst coaching Inter Milan vs Barcelona in the semi finals of the 2010 Champions League. Inter defended relentlessly in camp Nuo & lost 0-1 & won 3-2 on aggregate on the way to winning the CL that year.

Both Chelsea & Bayern have lost 4 first team players each for the final due to suspension. This will cause huge team selection headaches for their respective coaches. Despite Chelsea's recent resurgence & Bayern's home advantage, this is a final which again hard to predict and based on the surprise semi final outcomes is a 50-50 match..........unless you take into account the home support advantage which Bayern will be enjoying in their magnificent Allianz Arena.

This will make Bayern slight favourites going into the final, but Chelsea have proved themselves to be a force to be reckoned with & anything is possible.

My prediction: Bayern to win by 1 goal either 1-0 or 2-1

Ps I forgot to mention I will be travelling to Munich to witness this magnificent event in person, as I did in the previous two occasions Bayern have made it to the final: Milan in 2001 (victorious) & Madrid in 2010 (unsuccessful)

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