Following an exciting Group stage, the 8 round of 16 matches have now been completed & the quarter final pairings determined......and yet, it is still difficult to confidently predict the outcome of the quarter finals.
In an amazing round of 16:
- ALL 8 Group winners won their matches through to the quarter finals
- 5 out of 8 matches went to extra time, with only two penalty shootouts out of the 6 & the rest of the results determined in extra time.
- Only Colombia won comfortably in regulation time whilst Netherlands only scored an equaliser in the 88th minute & won their match vs Mexico with a questionable penalty in the 92nd minute & France struggled to score until 77th minute.
- Hosts Brazil struggled & were ultimately lucky to win their penalty shootout vs one of the 3 dark horses of the tournament Chile
- Netherlands, Germany, France & Argentina all struggled to beat their opponents whilst Costa Rica continued their impressive fairytale march to the quarter finals on penalties.
Colombia led by James Rodriguez comfortably continued to enjoy their pre tournament Dark Horse tag whilst Belgium found Tim Howard in the USA goals in impressive form & the USA players' courage & fitness almost impossible to stop at the end. Algeria meanwhile displayed fast attractive counter attacking football & were unlucky to fall to the formidable albeit somewhat puzzlingly fragile Germans
And hence, both commentators & fans are none the wiser as all teams displayed frailties in some areas & impressed in others:
There are however several observations that can be made following the round of 16 matches:
- First & fore mostly, as a friend pointed out to me, it is almost ridiculous for Les Murray & Craig Foster to fool heartedly praise the Socceroos after three defeats & constantly praise the South American style of the likes of Chile as a role model Australia should aspire to.
Australian players are generally less tactically gifted & as sporting culture in Australia dictates (as opposed to the football culture of South America), our players are more physical than tactically gifted. Therefore, FFA & the likes of Craig Foster should look to what Klinsman has done with the USA team. That is what the Socceroos should aspire to, and we can achieve, a highly competitive, physically fit team with a mix of tactical & technical capability.
- Brazil are almost impotent upfront with Fred & Jo & rely too much on Neymar for goals (as do Argentina with Messi). I mentioned in my pre World Cup post, I am not a fan of Big Phil Scolari & think he can be tactically naive at times. He is not using Oscar very well & there's too much gap between Oscar & Neymar. But most crucially, as the players broke down following their penalty shoot out win vs Chile, it is quite clear that the weight of hometown expectation is bearing heavily on the players. Most crucially, Luiz Gustavo, the ever present holding midfielder is suspended following a 2nd yellow card. With David Luiz as the only natural replacement in that position, Big Phil will have a major headache to deal with, one that Colombia look towards exploiting.
- This pressure represents the perfect scenario for Colombia, arguably the only consistent team in the tournament so far. James Rodriguez and co are capable of crossing the cultural barriers that rule the status quo in South American football (having only ever beaten Brazil twice).
I tip Colombia to beat Brazil 2-1.
France have no doubt been the other surprising team besides Colombia. I predicted in a post that they were a quarter final side & that is where the tournament will end for them as they fall to Germany again. As Oliver Kahn said today, if Germany cut the supply from midfield to Benzema, France are almost void of a Plan B to compensate for that. On another point, like Argentina, France have so far had a relatively easy route & will face their first serious challenge in Germany.
Germany on the other hand, have shown frailties in the defence with 4 fullbacks filling the positions whilst the best right back in the world, their Captain Philip Lahm is deployed as a holding midfielder! Germany coach seems hell bent in again using Lahm in midfield vs France even though against Algeria, once the hapless Mustafi was injured & Khedira replaced him (in Lahm's position & Lahm moved to right back in place of Mustafi). Much has been said about the slow turning Mertesacker but when paired with Hummels, Germany defence should cope with the impressive French attack.
This match will have goals & Germany will win by 1-2 goal margin
The other half of the draw sees Netherlands bring Costa Rica's gallant & at times entertaining journey to a credible end. Holland will not underestimate Costa Rica like Italy, Uruguay, England & Greece did & their 3-5-2 formation will cause Costa Rica & their brilliant goalkeeper Navas plenty of headaches. Holland will win a fast entertaining encounter.
And finally to Argentina & Belgium. Both teams have at times struggled & Argentina in particular have found it hard to breakdown teams defending with 11 men to neutralise Messi. Like France, both teams are also reached the quarter finals through a relatively easier schedule than the likes of Brazil, Germany & Netherlands. Many commentators suggest Argentina will show their real quality against a more attack minded Belgium than their previous more defensive opponents.
The surprise package may be Aguero. If he's finally fit to compliment Messi the way Higuain never can, then Argentina will win. If Aguero remains sidelined, Belgium have enough quality across the field to beat Argentina unless Messi magic strikes again!
This has been a high scoring exciting World Cup & the quarter final pairings will continue to make it one of teh best ever!
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